Golden Quarter Crystal Ball: Predictions for 2024

The Golden Quarter is traditionally familiar ground for retailers, offering forecastable growth in traffic, customers and revenues for retailers – and presenting familiar challenges in the form of fulfilment, user experience and checkout flows. Using historical data is a wise strategy for retailers looking to get an idea of the scale of the challenges – and opportunity – ahead.  

Nonetheless, each year the landscape shifts and unique challenges emerge. The ongoing cost-of-living crisis, in addition to ever-increasing levels of competition, has made the past couple of years challenging for retailers as the financial pressures on consumers cause tightening of purse strings, impacting sales. Furthermore, interest rates have reached their highest rates – at 5.25% - for 16 years, a measure that would typically discourage consumer spending and incentivise saving.  

With this being said, green shoots are beginning to emerge for retailers. EY’s UK Future Consumer Index (FCI) seemed to demonstrate that consumer financial sentiment is finally beginning to stabilise and improve, with 13% of UK consumers say they feel better about their general financial situation compared with the start of last year. Consumers reconsider investing in treats and experiences, rather than just worrying about how to pay the day-to-day bills. At 47%, the number of those extremely concerned about the UK economy is at its lowest point in 18 months, whilst those extremely concerned by the UK cost of living crisis is down by 10 percentage points in the last year.  

But what does all this mean for retailers, as we move into the peak season for 2024? We’ve dusted off our crystal balls to take a look at the key trends shaping the market in order to give you some insight, to hopefully stand you in the best possible stead for peak season. 

Key Predictions for Golden Quarter 2024 

• Accelerated Ecommerce Growth: Building on the surge of traffic originally spurred by the pandemic, online shopping is expected to continue its upward trajectory. Retailers can anticipate a significant portion of sales originating from digital channels. It’s critical for this reason to ensure that your checkout journey is fit-for-purpose. 
• Early Bird Shoppers: Consumer behaviour analysis indicates a potential trend toward earlier holiday shopping. This could be driven by factors such as supply chain uncertainties and the drive to secure desired products. It fits the overall profile of a more educated consumer, who understands the wider market trend and will plan their purchasing accordingly. 
• Sustainability First: Environmental consciousness is on the rise, another trait of an increasingly educated consumer base. Chances are that when competition is fierce (as it’s guaranteed to be during peak season), a competitive edge might be gained in offering sustainable options. But while it’s an important first step to incorporate environmentally conscious offerings, the best-intentioned initiatives mean nothing if customers aren’t aware of it. Businesses that can effectively communicate their eco-friendly initiatives, through email marketing or other channels, are likely to gain a competitive edge.
• Data-Driven Personalisation: The importance of data-driven marketing cannot be overstated. Retailers with robust data management systems will be better equipped to offer personalised recommendations and promotions, leading to higher conversion rates. Robust data maintenance and a commitment to data quality is key to ensuring customer data is as reliable as it can be, so as not to hit the wrong note with personalised campaigns. 
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Dominance: BNPL services are gaining traction. Retailers should ensure seamless integration of these payment options to cater to evolving consumer preferences.
• Digital Wallets: The statistics say it all: digital wallets currently account for 49% (and growing) of global ecommerce sales, 58% of shoppers prefer one-click checkout options, and it’s projected that 5.2 billion people will have used a digital wallet to make a payment by 2026. For that reason, it’s never been more important to cater to digital wallets in your checkout. 
• Supply Chain Resilience: The ongoing emphasis on supply chain resilience will be crucial – in more uncertain financial times, suppliers can also experience downtime, which may significantly impact sales during peak season. Retailers should have contingency plans in place – the frustration a failed delivery can cause a customer is difficult to overcome. 

By anticipating these trends and investing in data quality and checkout optimisation, retailers can position themselves for success in the Golden Quarter of 2024 and beyond.  

Ready to optimise your operations for the peak season? Speak to your account manager or product specialist today to get started.